11/05/2012

Pravda Media Over-Sample Dems By 7% to 11% in Polls!!!!

Posted by Brian

Media polls not to be believed.

Real Clear Politics is reporting that President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 2.8%, one day before the election. If you are a conservative, this is not good news. But, looking closely at the polls, and drilling down into the methodology, things may not be what they seem.

The four polls which show Obama leading by the greatest margins, which figure into that RCP average, are:

PPP Poll: Obama +5
NBC/Marist Poll: Obama +6
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Poll: FL,OH,VA  Obama +5
CNN Opinion Poll:  Obama +3

Pretty depressing, huh?

Here's the problem.  Each and every one of these polls grossly oversample Democrat voters, and in the case of the CBS poll, fail to mention the voter enthusiasm gap between Dems and Republicans.

Here is what the media are not telling you about these polls:

In the PPP poll, which has Obama up by 5% points, Dems are oversampled by 8%, 43-35 percent.
In the NBC/Marist Poll, which has Obama up by 6%, Dems are oversampled by 9%, 38-29 percent.
In the CNN poll,  Which has Obama up by 3%, the Democrats are oversampled by 11%.
Finally, in one of the more interesting polls, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has Obama up by 5% over Romney in the Battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.  The breakdown for each state is as follows:

Party ID:               FL            OH          VA
GOP                      30            29             27
Dem                      37            37             35
Dem Over            +7%        +8%         +8%

In an even more telling statistic from the poll is this tidbit:

Voter enthusiasm in these three states breaks down along party line like this:

Voter Enthusiasm         FL           OH             VA
GOP                             63            57               56
DEM                            47            43               49
      Gap                             +16 (R)    +14(R)        +7 (R)

 The numbers just don't bear out what the media is reporting.  The oversampling of Democrat voters is greater than the projected victory for Obama in every instance!  Combine this with the lack of enthusiasm among Democrats, as compared to their GOP counterparts,  and the numbers just don't  add up.  The reports have all of the signs of a sycophantic media actively trying to depress GOP voter enthusiasm and turnout.

Don't buy it.  Go out and vote no matter what the MSM is saying.    
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